Perspectives

Why 60% of the world's population deserves better venture capital

The middle-power thesis explained. Why the next decade of category-defining companies will emerge across the cities the venture map has ignored.

For forty years, venture capital has behaved as though talent and ambition cluster in a handful of postcodes. The map of where capital flows has stayed remarkably narrow, even as the map of where value is created has widened beyond recognition.

Sixty percent of the world's population now lives in what we call the middle powers. These are the fast-growing, digitally native economies that sit between the established giants and the frontier. They have young populations, rising smartphone penetration, deepening capital markets, and a generation of founders who have stopped waiting for permission.

The word we removed

We no longer use the word "emerging". It quietly caps ambition. It tells a founder in Manila or Riyadh that they are a smaller version of somewhere else. The reality on the ground is different. These cities are building category leaders that will export to the world, not import from it.

Where the next decade is built

Look at where the fundamentals are strongest. Payments infrastructure is being rebuilt from first principles across Southeast Asia. Sovereign AI is being trained on languages the incumbents mishandle. Climate-resilient supply chains are being wired across markets that feel the pressure first and hardest.

Each of these is a large, durable market. Each is underserved by capital that still concentrates elsewhere. That gap between the size of the opportunity and the amount of capital chasing it is the entire thesis.

What this means for how we invest

We index the 57 cities that will shape the next era of the global economy, and we deploy with discipline into the founders building there. We back conviction early, we stay close, and we measure ourselves against the companies that get built, not the logos we collect.

The middle powers are not a diversification play. They are where the centre of gravity is moving. The firms that recognise this early will define the next decade of venture.