The Capital57 City 100 Index · 2026

100 Cities Shaping Their Future

The City Index ranks the top 100 cities by where the next wave of venture growth is heading. It is the deliberate inverse of the benchmarks that rank where ecosystems already stand, and it exists to answer one question: where does the opportunity remain uncaptured.

1st Edition Report · 15 min read · July 2026
01

Why Frontier Cities Matter Now

A widening capital mismatch is opening asymmetric opportunity across the world's middle-power economies.

In 2024 the United States alone took 57% of global venture capital deal value. Add China, at roughly 32 billion dollars, and the United Kingdom, and three markets account for around three-quarters of the venture capital deployed worldwide. The concentration has held for a decade, and it has held while the ground beneath it moved.

Those same three countries hold about 22% of the world's 8.2 billion people. All three sit well above the global median age. The arithmetic is unforgiving: well over three-quarters of the world's under-30s live somewhere the capital does not.

The talent is in that somewhere. So are the problems worth solving. Increasingly, so are the outcomes. Uzum, Uzbekistan's first technology unicorn, reached a valuation of roughly 2.3 billion dollars from a standing start. Kaspi, built in Almaty, trades on the Nasdaq at around 20 billion dollars. These are early readings of where the next decade is forming.

The Capital57 City 100 Index is built to read that signal. It scores 100 cities across the world's most dynamic economies on two independent dimensions: how ready an ecosystem is today, and how fast its frontier is opening. From those two numbers it produces a ranking, a tier for every city, and a defensible view that no single existing benchmark provides.

Most benchmarks answer a backward-looking question. StartupBlink and the Global Startup Ecosystem Report both rank where ecosystems already stand, which is useful, and which is also why capital keeps returning to the same handful of cities. The City 100 Index runs the other way. It is built to find where opportunity remains uncaptured. That is rarely where the money already sits.

The inversion is the point. A ranking that rewards maturity will always return San Francisco, London and Beijing who have created some of the world's most exciting and valuable companies. A ranking built to find the next frontier returns Tashkent, then asks why a global allocator has never run the numbers on it.

The most important opportunities in the next decade of technology are not where the money is now.

What follows is the method, the four tiers, the leaders on two views, the fastest risers, the regional picture, and a deep dive into a selection of cities.

02

The Capital Gap

In 2025, global venture capital hit $512.6 billion, the third-largest year on record, driven primarily by AI mega-deals concentrated in a handful of US companies. The United States alone captured around two-thirds of it, the highest concentration the asset class has seen, up from 57% in 2024.

Set the frontier against that. Across the whole of 2025, every startup in Africa raised roughly $3.8 billion, in Latin America $4.1 billion, in Southeast Asia $5.4 billion, and across the Middle East and North Africa $7.5 billion. Together, four regions that house most of the world's young population drew a low-single-digit share of global venture capital. The implication is stark: markets adding roughly 100 million new internet users a year are competing for the fraction of capital left once the US and China have been served.

Why the gap exists

The concentration of venture capital in a small number of Western and East Asian markets is not accidental. It reflects three structural realities that have persisted since the asset class was formalised in the 1970s:

Information asymmetry

Most venture funds are headquartered in markets where their LPs, advisors, and co-investors are physically located. Investment decisions flow toward founders who speak the same language, attend the same conferences, and move in the same professional networks.

Exit infrastructure bias

Institutional LPs require predictable return timelines. Historically, predictable exits such as IPOs on major exchanges and strategic acquisitions by established corporates, were concentrated in the US, Europe, and later China. This created a self-reinforcing loop that capital flowed where exits were visible, which made those ecosystems more liquid and attracted more capital.

Risk mispricing

The absence of capital in a market is frequently misread as the absence of opportunity. In practice, it often reflects the absence of local capital infrastructure, not the absence of fundable companies. When Paystack raised its seed round in Lagos in 2016, the company was already processing millions of dollars of transactions per month. The capital gap was institutional, rather than commercial.

The structural shift

Several forces are now compressing this disproportion faster than at any point in the asset class' history.

Sovereign infrastructure

Government-led digital infrastructure programmes have materially lowered the cost of building technology businesses in middle power markets. Qatar's QAR 9 billion AI agenda, Indonesia's $70 billion digital economy projection, Rwanda's Digital Acceleration Programme and Uzbekistan's Digital Uzbekistan 2030 initiative represent sovereign technology commitments that function as direct subsidies for startup formation. These programmes create regulatory environments, provide first-customer revenue, and build the technical talent pipelines that previously took decades to establish organically.

Remote-first founders

The post-pandemic normalisation of remote work has decoupled founder location from capital access for the first time in the asset class' history. A founder in Nairobi can now raise a pre-seed round from investors in London, New York and Dubai simultaneously, then deploy the product to a customer base in East Africa, South Asia and the Middle East without establishing a physical presence in any of those markets. This structural change fundamentally alters the economics of building in frontier markets.

Maturing exits

The exit infrastructure is also maturing. Paystack's $200 million-plus acquisition by Stripe, Careem's $3.1 billion sale to Uber, and GoTo's listing on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) are the leading indicators of an exit infrastructure that is being constructed in real time across the markets that global venture capital has historically overlooked.

03

How the Index Works

Every city carries two scores, each out of 100.

The Readiness Axis
Maturity
0–100
1
Ecosystem Signal. StartupBlink rank, Startup Genome status and unicorn count.
2
Exit & Growth. Series A and later rounds, active acquirers and local exchange depth.
3
Talent & Infrastructure. English, mobile speed, internet, cost of living and a top university.
4
Middle Power Independence. Strategic autonomy, UN voting, a funded tech strategy and diversified trade.
The Growth Signal
Frontier Opportunity
0–100
1
Youth & Talent Pipeline. A productive-age population, with median age 26–30 scored highest.
2
Digital Velocity. Three-year mobile and internet growth, plus mobile-money adoption.
3
Government Ambition. Digital strategy, technology zones and sustained state investment.
4
VC White Space. Low startup density and seed-capital scarcity scored as room to build.
5
Momentum. Three-year growth in ecosystem and funding, rewarding the fastest.
40% Maturity
60% Frontier Opportunity

Frontier Opportunity tells you where the growth is going. Maturity sits beside it as execution risk, the readiness to capture that growth. A high opportunity score next to a low maturity score is the signature of an early frontier bet.

The overall ranking is a 40/60 blend weighted towards the growth axis. Maturity then does two further jobs: it gates entry, and it draws the lines that sort every city into a tier. The Index reports both views, the blend is the canonical ranking and the Frontier Opportunity leaderboard is the lead lens, because the story of this edition is where venture is heading.

04

The Four Tiers

Two median lines, Maturity at 55 and Frontier Opportunity at 51.5, divide the field into four quadrants, and four tiers.

PIONEERACCELERATOREMERGINGKEYSTONE30405060708090304050607080Maturity →Frontier Opportunity →
Accelerator(20)
Pioneer(31)
Keystone(35)
Emerging(14)
Hover a city · thresholds at Maturity 55, Frontier 51.5
20
Accelerator Cities
Maturity 55 or above, Frontier 51.5 or above.

Proven and still rising. These cities clear the readiness bar and keep their growth signal high. Riyadh, Cairo, Almaty, Manila and Doha sit here, alongside Delhi and Bangalore, whose world-class maturity carries them in despite slower growth. This is the lower-risk end of the frontier.

31
Pioneer Cities
Maturity below 55, Frontier 51.5 or above.

The early frontier bet, and the heart of the thesis. High opportunity sits next to a young or thin ecosystem, which is precisely the combination a disciplined early-stage investor is paid to find before it is obvious. Tashkent leads the whole Index from this quadrant. Astana, Muscat, Mombasa, Amman, Chiang Mai, Jeddah, Casablanca and Kigali sit here too.

35
Keystone Cities
Maturity 55 or above, Frontier below 51.5.

Mature, slowing, and valuable as network nodes. Mumbai, Singapore, Seoul, Tokyo, Stockholm and Zurich are the types, deep capital markets with proven exit paths and world-class talent. The growth premium has already been priced in, which is what the tier signals. These are the places to bank, partner and exit through rather than to underwrite early.

14
Emerging Cities
Both scores below the lines.

The building phase, and the watch-list. Cordoba, Tbilisi, Belgrade and Krakow are still assembling the ecosystem depth and the growth signal that move a city up the map. The ingredients are forming but not yet converging; an edition or two from now, the strongest of them will have crossed a line. For now they are tracked rather than backed.

05

The Fastest Risers

The Momentum league. The cities are accelerating faster than anywhere on earth.

Momentum is the pillar that asks a single question: how fast is this ecosystem growing right now. The scores are banded from StartupBlink's published year-on-year growth rates, and the leaders post numbers the developed world has not seen in a decade.

The ranking is dominated by the Gulf and Central Asia, with West Africa and South Asia represented through Abuja and Colombo. Riyadh and Tashkent are in a class of their own, each more than doubling its ecosystem footprint in the measured window.

1Riyadh
+0%
2Tashkent
+0%
3Chiang Mai
+0%
4Colombo
+0%
5Almaty
+0%
6Muscat
+0%
7Abuja
+0%
8Jeddah
+0%
9Casablanca
+0%
10Amman
+0%
Accelerator
Pioneer
Three-year ecosystem growth, banded

Riyadh's rise is state-engineered and capital-backed. It moved to number 72 on StartupBlink, on the back of roughly 178 venture deals in 2024 and two home-grown unicorns in Tabby and Tamara. Tashkent's rise is steeper still: an ecosystem growing at a banded triple-digit rate, and funding up roughly 230 times in four years from a near-zero base.

So what does it take to be a frontier frontrunner? The cities at the top of the Momentum league share a recipe, and it has four common ingredients. State capital that funds the ecosystem directly rather than waiting for private money to arrive. A young population concentrated in the productive-age band, which supplies both founders and customers. Almost no incumbent venture density, so early capital is not bidding against a crowd. And at least one credible exit that proves a billion-dollar outcome is possible from this soil. Riyadh has all four at once: PIF and STV capital, a median age under 30, a market being built from a low base, and unicorns in Tabby and Tamara. Tashkent has three and is assembling the fourth, with Uzum as its first proof point. Momentum is what happens when these line up together.

Momentum is also the most fragile of the pillars, and it should be read with that in mind. A 134% growth rate compounds from a small base, and the cities posting the steepest rises are early in their curve, which is the opportunity and the risk in the same number. The frontrunners worth backing are the ones converting momentum into durable maturity, deepening their capital base, building exchanges, and retaining the founders their first exits create. Riyadh and the wider Gulf are furthest along that path. Tashkent, Almaty and the East African risers are earlier, which is exactly where the asymmetry is largest for an investor willing to underwrite the execution.

The shape of a frontrunner
Tashkent
Frontier 82
YOUTH & TALENTDIGITAL VELOCITYGVT. AMBITIONVC SPACEMOMENTUM
Riyadh
Frontier 69
YOUTH & TALENTDIGITAL VELOCITYGVT. AMBITIONVC SPACEMOMENTUM
Kigali
Frontier 65
YOUTH & TALENTDIGITAL VELOCITYGVT. AMBITIONVC SPACEMOMENTUM
Lima
Frontier 61
YOUTH & TALENTDIGITAL VELOCITYGVT. AMBITIONVC SPACEMOMENTUM
Frontier Opportunity split into its five pillars, each scored out of 20
06

The Cities Up Close

A region-by-region reading of the frontier, with a standout city in each.

The single clearest pattern in the data is regional. The head of the Index, on both the blend and the opportunity leaderboard, belongs to Central Asia and the Middle East. The rest of the frontier sorts into regional stories, each with a standout and a reason to watch it.

KigaliAbujaJohannesburg

Sub-Saharan Africa

Africa carries the highest opportunity, and the thinnest readiness. Johannesburg twelfth and Cape Town twenty-third hold the mature end. The story is below them. Mombasa ranks third in the world on Frontier Opportunity, on a young population and near-total white space, with an ecosystem roughly fifty times smaller than Nairobi's. Kigali and Lagos round out a region where the growth signal is loud and the execution risk is real.

Kigali

Rwanda · Sub-Saharan Africa · POP ~1.7m
PIONEER
Maturity
32
Frontier
65
Blended
51.8
Rank
#52

Kigali is the clearest case of a city that has manufactured an ecosystem through policy rather than inherited one. Rwanda's government has spent two decades turning a small, landlocked market into a regional convening point, and Kigali is the result. The fundamentals are early: a StartupBlink rank of 487, no unicorns, and a Maturity score of 32 that is the lowest of any city in the upper half of the Index. What lifts it into the Pioneer tier is the combination the Index is built to find. The median age is around 20, among the youngest measured anywhere. Mobile-money adoption sits near 66% of wallets. And the state has moved first on the infrastructure that usually arrives late, from a funded national AI policy to a two-billion-dollar innovation district. The opportunity is real, and so is the execution risk, which is the definition of a frontier bet.

The Horizon

Rwanda has turned a small market into a regional convening point through deliberate policy. The Kigali Innovation City build-out and the Norrsken East Africa hub give the city deal-flow infrastructure that larger markets lack, and the Norrsken22 vehicle channels a Klarna founder's capital into East African startups. The binding constraint is talent depth, which the Maturity score of 32 names plainly, and convergence depends on the university pipeline catching up with the policy ambition. This is a long-horizon Pioneer bet on a government that has shown, repeatedly, that it executes what it announces.

Ecosystem Snapshot
$2bn
Kigali Innovation City

Under construction as of September 2024. (KT Press, World Bank)

1st
National AI policy in Africa

Funded at roughly $17m. (MINICT)

~66%
Mobile-money wallets

Adoption across adults. (RURA, MicroSave)

RiyadhCairoAbu Dhabi

MENA

The corridor pairs high government ambition with young, connected populations and rapidly maturing ecosystems. Riyadh and Cairo both run home-grown unicorns; the Gulf states bring sovereign capital at scale. This is the region where readiness and opportunity meet most often.

Riyadh

Saudi Arabia · MENA · POP ~7.7m
ACCELERATOR
Maturity
68
Frontier
69
Blended
68.6
Rank
#3

Riyadh is third on the master ranking and the fastest riser in the Momentum league, and the two facts are connected. This is a state-engineered ecosystem, built deliberately and fast on the back of sovereign capital. The PIF and STV complex funds the market at a scale no regional peer can match, roughly 178 venture deals closed in 2024, and the city has already produced two home-grown unicorns in Tabby and Tamara. The maturity is recent but real, with internet penetration at 99%, mobile speeds around 125 Mbps, and a deepening exit path through Tadawul. What keeps the opportunity score high for a city this developed is its demographics and ambition: a median age of 29.7 in the productive sweet spot, tertiary enrolment above 70% and rising, and AI commitments exceeding 40 billion dollars. Riyadh is the rare city that clears the readiness bar and still posts frontier-level growth, which makes it the most immediately actionable name at the top of the Index.

The Horizon

Few cities combine this much capital with demographics this favourable. The PIF and STV complex funds the ecosystem at a scale no peer can match, and the demographic profile keeps the growth signal high even as maturity rises. The watch point is concentration: much of the momentum is state-directed, and the test of the next cycle is how much private, founder-led activity it crowds in. If the sovereign push converts into a self-sustaining ecosystem, Riyadh moves from fastest riser to regional anchor. It is the lower-risk way to hold frontier-level growth today.

Ecosystem Snapshot
~178
Venture deals in 2024

Riyadh-dominant within Saudi Arabia. (MAGNiTT)

2
Unicorns

Tabby and Tamara. (Fintech News ME)

$40bn+
PIF AI commitments

Alongside the funded NSDAI strategy. (SDAIA)

BangaloreManilaHo Chi Minh City

South & Southeast Asia

South and Southeast Asia split into two tiers. The Indian mega-hubs of Delhi, Bangalore and Mumbai sit high on maturity and low on growth, the classic Keystone profile. The opportunity is in the second tier: Manila ninth, Hanoi sixteenth and Ho Chi Minh City seventeenth are among the most capital-efficient ecosystems in the world, with blended scores that reflect both momentum and room to grow.

Bangalore

India · South & Southeast Asia · POP ~13.6m
ACCELERATOR
Maturity
91
Frontier
53
Blended
68.2
Rank
#4

Bangalore has the deepest ecosystem in the Index, with a Maturity score of 91 that is the highest of any city, and India's largest unicorn cluster at somewhere between 26 and 32 companies. It ranks fourth overall on the blend, carried almost entirely by readiness. The city absorbs close to half of India's venture funding, lists on the NSE and BSE, and has produced exits at IPO scale. It also illustrates the Index's central distinction more sharply than anywhere else. With a startup density of roughly 900 to 1,070 companies per million people, the market is fully contested, which is precisely why the Frontier score of 53 is modest despite world-class fundamentals. The youth is there, with a median age of 29.2, and UPI has made it one of the most digitally active markets on earth. But the white space that drives frontier returns has already been competed away. Bangalore is a proven market rather than an early one.

The Horizon

This is a proven market rather than a frontier one. Bangalore takes close to half of India's venture funding and ranks twelfth in the world on StartupBlink, which is exactly why its opportunity score is modest: the market is fully contested and richly priced. The play here is to bank, partner and exit, and to source the talent and second-time founders spinning out of the incumbents. For early-stage frontier returns an allocator looks elsewhere, but for scale, depth and a credible path to liquidity in Asia, Bangalore is among the surest bets in the Index.

Ecosystem Snapshot
~26-32
Unicorns

India's largest cluster. (Tracxn)

~47%
Of India's VC funding

Concentrated in the city. (Growth List)

#12
StartupBlink global rank

Among the world's top-12 ecosystems. (StartupBlink)

In Conversation with
Ahmad Iqbal
GM, MENAP at Canva
We love to hear from experts actively engaging with frontier markets. Ahmad is leading Canva's presence in Arabia, Pakistan and North Africa, on a mission to empower the world to create and communicate visually.
TashkentAlmatyYerevan

Central Asia, Caucasus & Türkiye

These are young, digitising, resource-backed economies with almost no venture density, which is why they score at the very top of VC White Space. Almaty already has the proof point in Kaspi, a roughly 20-billion-dollar Nasdaq-listed business, plus Higgsfield AI. Central Asia is the most systematically underpriced region in global venture.

Tashkent

Uzbekistan · Central Asia · POP ~3.0m
PIONEER
Maturity
51
Frontier
82
Blended
69.6
Rank
#1

Tashkent is the number one city in the Index and its single clearest expression of the thesis. The ecosystem is still thin, with a StartupBlink rank of 229 and just one unicorn, which is why the Maturity score of 51 sits below the readiness line. Everything else points up, and steeply. The Frontier score of 82 is the highest measured anywhere, built on a median age around 27, an almost entirely uncontested market, and a government pursuing the Digital Uzbekistan 2030 strategy with intent. The momentum is the headline: the ecosystem is growing at a banded triple-digit rate, and venture funding has risen roughly 230 times in four years from a near-zero base. Uzum, the country's first technology unicorn at around 2.3 billion dollars, is the proof that an outcome is possible here. A capital that sat outside the venture conversation a decade ago now leads a 100-city Index on merit, with execution risk the Index keeps fully in view.

The Horizon

This is the earliest of early-frontier bets: low readiness, maximal opportunity, an ecosystem inflecting faster than any peer. The Digital Uzbekistan 2030 strategy and an almost entirely uncontested market push the opportunity score to its ceiling. The execution risk is real, around depth of capital, talent and exit infrastructure, and the Maturity score of 51 keeps it honest. The decade ahead turns on whether Uzum's success is the first of many or a solitary outlier. For an investor able to underwrite the risk, no city in the Index offers more asymmetry.

Ecosystem Snapshot
~230x
Funding growth

Over four years from a near-zero base. (StartupBlink)

+132%
Ecosystem growth

The fastest in the Index. (StartupBlink)

$2.3bn
Uzum valuation

The country's first technology unicorn. (TechCrunch)

StockholmMadridHelsinki

Europe

Europe sits almost entirely in the Keystone tier. These are mature, high-readiness markets with low growth signals, included as reference cities scored from standard datasets. They show what the developed end of the map looks like: deep capital, real exits, and demographics that cap the frontier score.

Stockholm

Sweden · Europe · POP ~2.4m
KEYSTONE
Maturity
81
Frontier
30
Blended
50.4
Rank
#60

Stockholm is a mature reference market with world-class readiness and a low growth signal, and it anchors the developed end of the Index. Per capita, it is one of the most productive startup ecosystems on earth, with a StartupBlink standing inside the global top ten and an alumni base that includes Spotify and Klarna, two of Europe's defining technology companies. The capital is deep and institutional, through funds such as EQT and Creandum, and Nasdaq Stockholm provides a functioning, well-trodden exit path. What it does not have is a frontier signal. The population is small, prosperous and already fully digital, so Digital Velocity has no headroom, and the demographics sit far outside the productive-age sweet spot the Index rewards. The Frontier score of 30 reflects that, and places Stockholm firmly among the network nodes. For an investor, this is a place to bank, partner and follow on, with the early-stage growth premium long since priced in.

The Horizon

This is a network node. Deep capital, a functioning exit path on Nasdaq Stockholm, and a proven alumni base make it valuable for banking and partnering across the Nordics. The growth premium has already been paid, which is what the Keystone tier signals. The role Stockholm plays in a frontier-focused strategy is connective: a place to access later-stage capital, experienced operators and a credible listing venue, rather than uncontested early opportunity. Its profile is unlikely to change, which is precisely why it sits in the reference set.

Ecosystem Snapshot
Top 10
StartupBlink standing

Among the world's most developed ecosystems. (StartupBlink)

Spotify, Klarna
Unicorn alumni

A deep founder and operator base.

EQT, Creandum
Capital base

Mature venture and growth funds.

Sao PauloMexico CityBogota

Latin America

Latin America is a value play. Sao Paulo fourteenth and Buenos Aires nineteenth lead on maturity. Bogota and Medellin carry the frontier signal, with Medellin in the Pioneer tier on a rising ecosystem and a young, urbanising base. The region trades at a discount to its talent.

Sao Paulo

Brazil · Latin America · POP ~22.6m
KEYSTONE
Maturity
84
Frontier
49
Blended
63
Rank
#14

Sao Paulo is Latin America's deepest ecosystem and the regional anchor, the one market in the region with genuinely global-scale fundamentals. It holds the only Top-40 position in the Global Startup Ecosystem Report from anywhere in Latin America, sits 24th on StartupBlink, and is home to around 15 unicorns, roughly 80% of Brazil's total. The capital base is mature, with active corporate ventures from the likes of Itau and a deep bench of local and international funds, and the city takes the majority of Brazil's venture investment. B3, the local exchange, lists hundreds of companies, though the IPO window is currently shut. The Frontier score of 49 sits just below the line, which is what places a market of this scale in the Keystone tier: the readiness is world-class, but growth has matured and the early-stage white space has narrowed. For an investor, Sao Paulo is the indispensable LatAm node, the place to access scale, follow-on capital and eventual liquidity.

The Horizon

This is the Latin American network node. Sao Paulo takes most of Brazil's venture capital, runs an active corporate venture scene, and lists on B3, though the IPO window is currently shut. Its frontier score sits just below the line, which places a market of this scale in the Keystone tier: mature, central, and slower-growing. The decade ahead depends partly on the reopening of regional exit markets, which would reprice the whole ecosystem. As the anchor for Latin American venture, Sao Paulo is where capital concentrates and where the region's largest outcomes will continue to be built.

Ecosystem Snapshot
15
Unicorns

Roughly 80% of Brazil's total. (Startup Genome)

#24
StartupBlink global rank

First in Latin America. (StartupBlink)

#26
GSER ranking

The only Latin American city in the global Top 40. (Startup Genome)

07

What This Means for Venture Capital

The frontier is mispriced. The opportunity is structural, and it is early.

The central finding of the Index is a mispricing. Three markets take three-quarters of global venture capital while holding under a quarter of the world's people and almost none of its under-30s. Capital is concentrated where competition is highest and growth is slowest. The cities at the top of this Index are the inverse: high growth, young populations, and almost no venture density bidding up the price of entry.

For a disciplined early-stage investor the tiers are an allocation framework that weighs readiness against opportunity. Pioneer cities are the asymmetric bets, where opportunity is high and the ecosystem is still forming. Entering early means lower entry valuations and less competition for the best founders, against real execution risk that the Maturity score names rather than hides. Tashkent, Mombasa, Muscat and Kigali are in this category.

Accelerator cities are where opportunity and readiness already overlap. Riyadh, Cairo, Almaty and Doha clear the maturity bar and keep a high growth signal, which makes them the lower-risk way to hold frontier exposure today. Keystone cities are the network: places to bank, to partner, and to exit through, with the growth premium already gone. Emerging cities are the watch-list.

The opportunity is structural because the drivers are structural. Demographics, digital adoption and sovereign technology ambition do not reverse on a quarterly cycle. They compound. A city with a median age in the twenties, internet penetration growing in double digits, and a funded state technology strategy is not having a good year. It is at the start of a long one.

The discipline that matters is the same one the Index applies to itself. Underwrite the readiness honestly, price the risk the Maturity score makes visible, and enter the opportunity before the consensus does. The frontier is mispriced today. It will not stay that way once the rest of the market runs the numbers.

08

The Horizon

Where this goes next. Our read on the decade ahead for frontier ventures.

The mispricing at the centre of this Index will not last the decade. Four forces are closing it, and they compound.

Demographic gravity

The median age in the cities at the head of this Index sits in the twenties. The median age in the markets that take three-quarters of global venture capital sits in the forties. Talent, founders and consumer demand follow the population, and the population is moving. A generation of builders is coming of age in Tashkent, Lagos, Manila and Riyadh, and they will start companies where they live, or are incentivised to live. This cohort also gets better with time. The data on who builds breakout companies points away from the myth of the 25-year-old founder: across 2.7 million firms, the founders of the fastest-growing 0.1% averaged 45 years old, and those that reached an exit averaged nearly 47. The frontier's founders are in their twenties today. Their most productive decade is still in front of them.

Sovereign ambition

Governments across MENA, Central Asia and East Africa have made technology a matter of statecraft. Saudi Arabia has committed more than 40 billion dollars to artificial intelligence. Rwanda funded the first national AI policy in Africa. These are industrial strategies with budgets attached, and they are building the infrastructure that venture capital usually waits for someone else to fund.

The exit

The frontier doubt has always been whether a billion-dollar outcome is possible. It is answered now. Kaspi trades on the Nasdaq at around 20 billion dollars. Uzum became Uzbekistan's first unicorn from a standing start. Each proof point reprices the market around it and pulls the next wave of capital in.

The flywheel

It is the force that turns a moment into an ecosystem. Exited founders are starting to recycle capital and judgement back into the next generation. Silicon Valley ran this playbook for thirty years, where the PayPal alumni seeded Tesla, LinkedIn, YouTube and Palantir. The frontier version is now beginning. Niklas Adalberth took his Klarna exit and built Norrsken, whose Norrsken East Africa and Norrsken22 vehicles back African founders out of Kigali. The Rappi alumni network now seeds or backs more than 80 companies across Latin America. This is the deal-flow and mentorship infrastructure that money alone cannot buy, and it compounds with every exit.

Our conviction is that the centre of venture creation is broadening, and that the returns will follow the builders before they follow the consensus. The cities in the Pioneer tier today are where the asymmetry is largest, because the opportunity is visible in the data and the capital has not yet arrived to compete it away. That window is the thesis. It is measured in years, and it is open now.

The frontier is mispriced today. The question for every allocator is not whether it corrects, but who is positioned when it does.
09

Appendix: The Full 100

The table reads top to bottom as the thesis in one view.

The head of the Index belongs to Central Asia, MENA and South Asia; the developed world clusters in the lower half as Keystone. Of the top 25, not one is a market where global venture capital already concentrates. The tier column carries the readiness signal: Pioneer cities are scattered through the upper ranks on opportunity alone, while the high-maturity hubs hold their place on the blend even as their growth slows.

#CityCountryRegionMatFrontBlendTier
1TashkentUzbekistanCentral Asia518269.6Pioneer
2DelhiIndiaSouth Asia875769.0Accelerator
3RiyadhSaudi ArabiaMENA686968.6Accelerator
4BangaloreIndiaSouth Asia915368.2Accelerator
5IstanbulTurkeyCaucasus & Türkiye706466.4Accelerator
6CairoEgyptMENA676565.8Accelerator
7MumbaiIndiaSouth Asia875165.4Keystone
8AlmatyKazakhstanCentral Asia577064.8Accelerator
9ManilaPhilippinesSoutheast Asia646564.6Accelerator
10DohaQatarMENA576964.2Accelerator
11AstanaKazakhstanCentral Asia517364.2Pioneer
12JohannesburgSouth AfricaAfrica715963.8Accelerator
13Abu DhabiUAEMENA715963.8Accelerator
14Sao PauloBrazilLatin America844963.0Keystone
15DubaiUAEMENA765462.8Accelerator
16HanoiVietnamSoutheast Asia606361.8Accelerator
17Ho Chi Minh CityVietnamSoutheast Asia635960.6Accelerator
18AmmanJordanMENA506760.2Pioneer
19Buenos AiresArgentinaLatin America685459.6Accelerator
20Kuala LumpurMalaysiaSoutheast Asia754959.4Keystone
21JeddahSaudi ArabiaMENA516559.4Pioneer
22MuscatOmanMENA427058.8Pioneer
23Cape TownSouth AfricaAfrica625658.4Accelerator
24YerevanArmeniaCaucasus & Türkiye496458.0Pioneer
25MombasaKenyaAfrica377258.0Pioneer
26SeoulSouth KoreaEast Asia873857.6Keystone
27BangkokThailandSoutheast Asia665257.6Accelerator
28CasablancaMoroccoMENA466557.4Pioneer
29Rio de JaneiroBrazilLatin America605557.0Accelerator
30PenangMalaysiaSoutheast Asia545957.0Pioneer
31SantiagoChileLatin America704856.8Keystone
32Chiang MaiThailandSoutheast Asia436656.8Pioneer
33LahorePakistanSouth Asia466356.2Pioneer
34Mexico CityMexicoLatin America625256.0Accelerator
35BogotaColombiaLatin America615255.6Accelerator
36AccraGhanaAfrica446355.4Pioneer
37MedinaSaudi ArabiaMENA426455.2Pioneer
38Belo HorizonteBrazilLatin America575455.2Accelerator
39AnkaraTurkeyCaucasus & Türkiye466155.0Pioneer
40BakuAzerbaijanCentral Asia416454.8Pioneer
41SingaporeSingaporeSoutheast Asia903154.6Keystone
42LimaPeruLatin America426254.0Pioneer
43GuadalajaraMexicoLatin America465953.8Pioneer
44NairobiKenyaAfrica535453.6Pioneer
45IzmirTurkeyCaucasus & Türkiye416253.6Pioneer
46MedellinColombiaLatin America495552.6Pioneer
47KarachiPakistanSouth Asia435952.6Pioneer
48JakartaIndonesiaSoutheast Asia674352.6Keystone
49IslamabadPakistanSouth Asia435952.6Pioneer
50SharjahUAEMENA505452.4Pioneer
51MontevideoUruguayLatin America515352.2Pioneer
52KigaliRwandaAfrica326551.8Pioneer
53ColomboSri LankaSouth Asia386151.8Pioneer
54AbujaNigeriaAfrica386151.8Pioneer
55TunisTunisiaMENA455651.6Pioneer
56MonterreyMexicoLatin America505251.2Pioneer
57LagosNigeriaAfrica624451.2Keystone
58San JoseCosta RicaLatin America395951.0Pioneer
59TokyoJapanEast Asia803150.6Keystone
60StockholmSwedenWestern Europe813050.4Keystone
61Panama CityPanamaLatin America375950.2Pioneer
62ZurichSwitzerlandWestern Europe803050.0Keystone
63TallinnEstoniaEastern Europe703549.0Keystone
64CordobaArgentinaLatin America455148.6Emerging
65TaipeiTaiwanEast Asia733248.4Keystone
66MadridSpainWestern Europe703448.4Keystone
67CopenhagenDenmarkWestern Europe753048.0Keystone
68KyivUkraineEastern Europe603947.4Keystone
69BarcelonaSpainWestern Europe673447.2Keystone
70DublinIrelandWestern Europe653547.0Keystone
71BandungIndonesiaSoutheast Asia434846.0Emerging
72TbilisiGeorgiaCaucasus & Türkiye395045.6Emerging
73HelsinkiFinlandWestern Europe693045.6Keystone
74WarsawPolandEastern Europe643345.4Keystone
75SydneyAustraliaAsia-Pacific692945.0Keystone
76GenevaSwitzerlandWestern Europe692945.0Keystone
77BucharestRomaniaEastern Europe573745.0Keystone
78BelgradeSerbiaEastern Europe494244.8Emerging
79FukuokaJapanEast Asia563644.0Keystone
80SofiaBulgariaEastern Europe513943.8Emerging
81OsloNorwayWestern Europe662943.8Keystone
82LvivUkraineEastern Europe454343.8Emerging
83MelbourneAustraliaAsia-Pacific652943.4Keystone
84SurabayaIndonesiaSoutheast Asia394643.2Emerging
85BrisbaneAustraliaAsia-Pacific583343.0Keystone
86VilniusLithuaniaEastern Europe553442.4Keystone
87OsakaJapanEast Asia593142.2Keystone
88KrakowPolandEastern Europe513642.0Emerging
89ValenciaSpainWestern Europe523541.8Emerging
90PragueCzechiaEastern Europe573141.4Keystone
91GothenburgSwedenWestern Europe612841.2Keystone
92BusanSouth KoreaEast Asia553241.2Keystone
93BudapestHungaryEastern Europe563141.0Keystone
94ZagrebCroatiaEastern Europe453840.8Emerging
95DaejeonSouth KoreaEast Asia523340.6Emerging
96WroclawPolandEastern Europe483540.2Emerging
97RigaLatviaEastern Europe523240.0Emerging
98AarhusDenmarkWestern Europe562839.2Keystone
99MalmoSwedenWestern Europe562738.6Keystone
100BratislavaSlovakiaEastern Europe463036.4Emerging

A note on sourcing. Every score in the Index converts a named public figure through an explicit band, recorded city by city in the Capital57 Evidence Ledger. Of the 100 cities, 48 are marked [S], fully sourced from fresh research, and 52 are marked [D], scored from established standard datasets. The exclusions, the United States, China, the United Kingdom and Israel, are by design.

10

References

Index scoring datasets

  • StartupBlink, Global Startup Ecosystem Index 2025 (ecosystem rank, startup density)
  • Startup Genome, Global Startup Ecosystem Report (GSER) 2025 (ecosystem maturity status)
  • Tracxn; CB Insights (unicorn counts and valuations)
  • MAGNiTT; Partech Africa; LAVCA (venture deal counts and funding)
  • EF English Proficiency Index (EF EPI)
  • Ookla Speedtest Global Index (mobile speed)
  • DataReportal / We Are Social (internet and mobile penetration)
  • World Bank Global Findex; GSMA (mobile-money adoption)
  • Numbeo (cost of living); QS World University Rankings
  • UN E-Government Development Index, EGDI (digital government)
  • UN World Population Prospects 2024 (median age, demographics)
  • OEC; World Bank WITS (trade-partner concentration)
  • US Department of State UNGA voting-coincidence reports; OECD.AI Policy Observatory (sovereign independence and AI strategy)

Market and macro sources

  • PitchBook-NVCA Venture Monitor 2024 (United States 57% of 2024 global VC deal value)
  • Crunchbase, Global Venture Funding 2025 ($512.6bn total, third-largest year on record, United States roughly two-thirds)
  • Wamda, Annual MENA Investment Report 2025 (MENA $7.5bn, including ~$4bn debt)
  • ABAN / Africa: The Big Deal (Africa $3.8bn, 2025)
  • LAVCA (Latin America venture funding)
  • UN World Population Prospects 2024 (world population 8.2bn; share by country)

Research, exits and ecosystem references

  • Azoulay, Jones, Kim and Miranda, "Age and High-Growth Entrepreneurship," American Economic Review: Insights, 2020 (2.7m firms; mean founder age of the fastest-growing 0.1% is 45, and nearly 47 for those reaching a successful exit)
  • Stripe acquisition of Paystack, 2020 (>$200m); Uber acquisition of Careem, 2019-2020 ($3.1bn); GoTo listing on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX), 2022
  • Norrsken Foundation (Niklas Adalberth, Klarna co-founder); Norrsken East Africa; Norrsken22

City-level and government sources (selected)

SDAIA and ai.gov.ae; The National (UAE); KT Press, MINICT, RURA and MicroSave (Rwanda); Astana Times (Kazakhstan); BCG-Foxmont (Philippines); VinaCapital (Vietnam); Fintech News Middle East; Failory; Invest in Bogotá; Government of Mexico; Government of Qatar; KPMG (Armenia).

A note on sourcing. Of the 100 cities, 48 are marked [S], fully sourced from fresh research, and 52 are marked [D], scored from established standard datasets. Where a city-level figure does not exist, the national value is used as a documented proxy.

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Important Notice

This report and the Capital57 City 100 Index are provided for general information only. Nothing in this document constitutes or forms part of any offer to sell or any solicitation of an offer to buy any security, fund interest or other financial instrument, nor any investment, legal, tax or other advice, nor a recommendation to make any investment. The Index is an analytical framework reflecting Capital57's methodology and opinions as at the date of publication; its rankings, scores and tiers are inherently subjective, draw in part on third-party data that has not been independently verified, and are subject to change without notice. Nothing in this report constitutes, indicates, implies or should be construed as any representation, projection, forecast, guarantee or assurance as to any investment performance, return, yield, profit or outcome of any kind. No representation is made that any city, market, sector or strategy referred to will be profitable or will achieve any particular result. Past performance and any forward-looking statements are not reliable indicators of, and give no guarantee as to, future results. Investment in venture capital and early-stage or frontier markets involves a high degree of risk, including illiquidity and the total loss of capital invested. No person should rely on this report in making any decision and each recipient should seek their own independent professional advice. To the fullest extent permitted by law, Capital57, its affiliates, and their respective partners, officers, employees and agents accept no liability whatsoever for any loss or damage arising from the use of, or reliance on, this report or its contents.